Re: 10 Things We Should Know About Atheists
Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:18 pm
This is a little bit different than eyewitness testimony in, say, a legal setting (though it is similar, I'll grant you that). With history, you are ultimately relying on accounts of eyewitnesses. But the job of the historian is to sift through the accounts (and by accounts, I also include things like photographs, audio, video, data, etc) and try to determine what the most likely situation is. With more modern history, it becomes easier to determine "truth" because of many disparate (this being the key here) accounts that tell approximately the same story. With George Washington, we have accounts by both British and American sources (who were not on the best of terms back then) that describe his existence. We also have portraits, documents bearing a consistent signature (an indication that, if you decide to think Washington isn't real, the hoax was at least consistent), birth dates and death dates from different sources that match record keeping of the time.Sstavix wrote: For example, look at George Washington. I've never met George Washington. Have you ever met George Washington? Have you ever met someone who has claimed to have met George Washington? No? Neither have I. So who knows if George Washington actually existed? Sure, there are history books, but those are merely attempts to perpetuate the falsehoods of George Washington - they can't be real. It's like the Goldstein character in "1984." George wrote things? Nope - someone else writing under a pen name. Maybe that Thomas Jefferson fellow... he was smart enough to pull a con like this. No, George Washington never existed, and anyone who says otherwise is lying!
It's like my ludicrous argument about Bangladesh. Basically, if you're willing to ignore any evidence proving that you're wrong, then you can convince yourself of pretty much anything.
Now, you can still dismiss all of this, but this is where I like to use Occam's Razor: "Among competing hypothesis, the one with the least assumptions should be selected". It's hardly an assumption that records would be kept back then, but still a small one. However, it is a MUCH larger assumption to say that, for instance, Thomas Jefferson forged all of these documents. That would require assuming that he had access to the records of dates of birth and death, that he was able to convince multiple disparate sources to say the same thing, and that he could have commissioned multiple portraits of the same fictional fellow.
*begin slight tangent*
Ancient history is quite a bit different though, as most records either didn't survive, or were heavily distorted over the ages. One of the biggest keys is reference to landmarks, or other physical evidence that does survive to this day (for instance, radiometric or otherwise dated artifacts). For instance, if historical source Sstavix says that there was a city named Sstavixville (

*end slight tangent *
Now that my history nerd is satisfied...
So going back to ghosts for a minute, let's consider the eyewitness testimony. Many disparate sources have reported similar phenomena, going back for years. So that naturally implies that something consistent is happening, though it does not afford the conclusion of *what* is causing the phenomena.
Now consider the evidence scientific study shows (I don't have any sources on hand, but this from a textbook I had in high school) that most of the situations described can be attributed to known phenomena: hearing footsteps? A shifting foundation and/or shifting frame can cause creaking that occurs at intervals spaced such to be considered footsteps. It also causes other weird phenomena. I've witnessed this myself; in college I lived in a 50+ year old house that creaked and shifted all the time. The doors would randomly swing open (THAT was fun...coming home to find the front door wide open, panicking thinking you'd been robbed) because the house had shifted enough that the bolt slid out of the latch. I noticed this when I tried to close said door and the latch wouldn't catch. The deadbolt worked fine because it was longer and would have required physically removing the door to get out. It all stopped after that.
Other known phenomena often attributed to ghosts include shifting pictures (foundation shifting), falling objects (can't tell you how many times that happened in our house, but again shifting and/or microquakes), "whispering" (in our case, it was the AC ducts in the attic that were failing), and my personal favorite: moving objects.
Let's discuss objects that seemingly move on their own for a second. Actually seeing them move of their own volition is one thing (and to this day, I don't think there's been a scientific study done that could capture it in a controlled environment that couldn't also be explained by shifting houses or earthquakes), but if you come into a room and things aren't where you left them? In my case, it was either housemates (they did that a lot...) or just really bad memories. I once swore I had put my keys down, spent 10 minutes frantically looking for them, only to discover them in my jeans pocket, right where they always were...
That's the other reason testimony of the supernatural is often suspect: it often involves highly charged emotional responses, which have been shown to distort memory. Or it involves such benign things that your recall is bad. Do you remember the clothes you wearing last month? Do you really remember the last time you moved that spoon?
I'm not saying this explains all of the cases. But it explains a really good chunk of them.
So with that in mind (that known phenomena can explain things without assumptions), which requires more assumption: that ghosts exist and have never been detected by scientific study before; or that situations involving supposed ghost activities somehow don't involve the repeatable, testable phenomena that I described and that the dead can exist in the world as entities after their earthly demise?
For me, the first has the least assumptions. A demonstrated, tested hypothesis carries fewer assumptions than an untestable, undemonstrated one simply that by showing things, they no longer become the same kind of assumption.
That's how I view ghosts. Unless a new breakthrough occurs, the easiest explanation is that they don't exist, and that there is an explanation for it.